Progress in economies and capital markets is not linear but cyclical. Financial markets go through long valuation cycles from over- to undervaluation over time spans of 15-25 years.
During a business cycle, the economy goes through different stages and so do the prices of the different asset classes and assets. A comprehensive analysis of economic and market trends leads to the conclusion of where the economy is in its business cycle and to specific ideas of what asset classes should rise or fall in value.
There are essentially four different areas of market analysis. The monetary framework shows what amount of liquidity is available for investments in assets. Valuation indicates the level of potential risk and reward. Momentum measures the health of a trend and sentiment is best used as a contrary indicator when it goes to extremes.
Our basic position is to at least preserve capital under the most severe circumstances and to earn a decent return on the capital invested in absolute terms over a full cycle and beyond.
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